Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 20.675400 22.557683 24.648977 27.168557 30.154806 33.624829 38.029185
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 17.934454 20.405826 23.364865 27.254890 32.376292 39.119681 49.125026
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.134690 18.929584 22.469580 27.459272 34.649034 45.296136 63.938834
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.803280 17.778959 21.717212 27.594639 36.757106 51.923833 83.656769
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.653020 16.684770 20.832582 27.306572 38.077487 57.767901 107.134537
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.820884 15.906837 20.254516 27.324013 39.840329 65.177966 143.877732
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.063036 15.144606 19.588039 27.057739 40.997931 71.955010 192.743306
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.418060 14.478777 18.980422 26.771159 42.020524 79.050751 267.001301
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.874442 13.911801 18.458754 26.539018 43.081175 87.017820 396.203950
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.414300 13.430835 18.020554 26.381517 44.256898 96.329241 668.674513
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.921246 12.865709 17.396214 25.793796 44.315998 102.206044 1126.601613
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.788653 12.837148 17.636867 26.862887 48.636300 128.974278 172396.744089
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.424764 12.432525 17.225741 26.620830 49.644760 143.699709 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.141017 12.137041 16.976659 26.675499 51.515428 167.005921 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.901031 11.896259 16.801551 26.859568 53.858568 200.074369 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.671161 11.657995 16.611063 26.984101 56.106107 241.780678 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.401569 11.341008 16.257137 26.704069 56.980808 276.509957 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.192395 11.112261 16.046172 26.719706 58.912520 338.534971 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.961988 10.837517 15.732922 26.462737 59.811292 397.506692 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.744482 10.574746 15.425792 26.186436 60.580891 469.539464 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.547336 10.337785 15.152851 25.962652 61.518654 570.935494 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.370912 10.128464 14.919748 25.810818 62.737462 728.371707 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.155750 9.845851 14.533377 25.244188 62.030655 802.645756 NaN